GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for worldwide merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new forecast more than doubles the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The upgrade was supported by stronger trade figures in the first half of the year, shifts in supply chain dynamics, and rising investment in artificial intelligence equipment. During the initial six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates merchandise trade expanding by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant factor behind the improved trade outlook was the demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other equipment essential for developing computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-related products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026, according to WTO estimates.
During the same period, energy and shipping markets experienced notable disruptions. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent. However, higher shipments from other producing regions mitigated the overall decline in crude oil to roughly 6 percent worldwide. LNG exports decreased by about 1 percent globally. Meanwhile, global container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July as trade shifted to alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation routes.
Technology Demand Drives Strength in Goods Trade
The prospects for service trade, however, remained weaker than those for merchandise. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for growth in commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Results from transportation and international travel were softer, affected by disruptions in the Middle East. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, though for the first half of the year, arrivals still remained 0.4 percent above the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel spending also slowed during this quarter.
Certain service sectors continued to grow at a faster pace. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and are estimated to have risen by 12 percent in the second quarter. Exports of financial services grew by 14 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter. The WTO predicts that commercial services trade will expand by 6.4 percent in 2027. It also expects global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent increase next year.
Asia Expected to Lead Regional Export Growth
Regional forecasts reveal significant differences in merchandise export performance. Asia is projected to achieve 9.9 percent export growth in 2026. North America follows with 5.7 percent, while Africa is expected to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is forecasted to increase exports by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe is seen declining slightly by 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the weakest outlook, with merchandise exports predicted to fall 17.2 percent during the year.
Forecasts for merchandise imports also vary notably across regions. Asia is expected to see import growth of 9.5 percent, and Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to rise by 1.4 percent, with Europe experiencing a growth of 0.5 percent. The Middle East is expected to see a decline of 15.4 percent in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the latest trade figures demonstrate resilience despite uneven impacts from economic and geopolitical disruptions.