MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has sanctioned a comprehensive long-term coal industry plan that envisions reaching an annual output of 662 million tonnes by 2050, according to its projected scenario. This initiative extends the nation’s coal strategy well into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal, making this new benchmark a significant escalation from that figure. The government authorized the programme through Order No. 2606-r, dated September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single forecast, the plan outlines multiple production trajectories. Its target scenario estimates output will hit 530.1 million tonnes in 2030. Production is expected to increase to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036 and then reach 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year; the stress scenario forecasts 318.9 million tonnes, while the conservative approach envisions 460.8 million tonnes. The inertial scenario anticipates approximately 586.4 million tonnes.
Long-term export goals are also central to the programme. Under the target scenario, exports are projected to attain 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, and eventually reaching 350.1 million tonnes in 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan further encompasses domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction techniques, and regional production outputs.
Eastern Siberia and the Far East to Play Greater Role in Production
The strategy allocates a larger share of coal output to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together produced 48.3% of Russia’s total in 2024. By 2050, their combined contribution is projected to range between 53.9% and 56.7%, depending on the scenario. Russia reports over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while also supporting new resource areas to meet future production goals.
Coal processing and extraction methods are addressed separately within the plan. In 2024, processed coal (excluding lignite) accounted for 58.9% of total output. This share is targeted to increase to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% of Russia’s coal in 2024, and under the long-term scenarios, this share could rise to between 82% and 85%. The programme also incorporates strategies to improve labor productivity, advance mining technologies, enhance industrial safety, and meet environmental standards.
Three Phases Guide the Programme Toward 2050
Implementation will proceed in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on short-term industry development and production strategies. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes processing, utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase stretches from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution, working alongside other federal and regional agencies, and must submit annual progress reports to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This initiative replaces the earlier coal industry plan through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak projected that by 2050, the coal sector’s gross value added could multiply sixfold, with the broader economic impact nearing 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains the primary scenario, though it is not the sole pathway for future production.