ROME / RankWire.AI / – Cereal production worldwide is forecasted to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. This represents a 2% decrease from the record harvest seen in 2025. The latest estimate also falls 3.4 million tonnes short of previous predictions. Despite this annual decline, global cereal output is still projected to be the second highest ever, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
Much of the global slowdown is driven by weaker maize prospects, with output expected to total 1.309 billion tonnes. Elevated temperatures and dry weather conditions have lowered yield forecasts across parts of the European Union. France and Poland are among the countries experiencing significant downward revisions. Smaller reductions were also applied to India and Paraguay, while increased yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset the decline. Both South American nations continue to anticipate maize crops well above their recent averages.
Meanwhile, the outlook for wheat has improved since the previous assessment, although global production still trails behind last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting a gain of 4.2 million tonnes from prior forecasts. Improved yield expectations boosted projections for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine have increased, whereas dry conditions led to lowered estimates for the European Union and United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels.
Weakness in Maize Production Dampens Global Grain Output
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, marking a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of the previous season. Gains in rice yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to the latest forecast. However, these improvements could not fully counteract the weaker outlook for China, the Philippines, and the United States. The U.S. has also seen rice acreage decline to levels not recorded in decades, reducing its expected contribution to global supply.
Expected world cereal consumption for 2026/27 totals 2.965 billion tonnes, a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous season. While rice and coarse grain consumption are projected to grow, wheat use is expected to decline from last season’s high levels. The global demand for rice is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth. Coarse grain consumption remains supported by feed demand, including maize in the China and barley use in the United States.
Cereal Inventories Stay Elevated Despite Weaker Outlook
At the end of 2027, global cereal stockpiles are projected at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes less than the previous estimate but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is anticipated to reach 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Wheat reserves are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower inventories of maize and barley contribute mainly to the overall reduction in stock estimates.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is forecasted at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from earlier predictions. Although this rise is notable, it remains below the record volume of 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade in 2026 is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% less than the record shipments achieved during 2025.